Net household migration by state, drawn from IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) year-to-year
address-change data. Trajectory lines extend the observed FY2020–21 → FY2022–23 rate
of change forward as a straight-line projection — a directional read on momentum, not a
demographic forecast.
NET MIGRATION · FY2022–2023 (LATEST IRS RELEASE)
TRAJECTORY · TOP GAINERS & LOSERS, 2021 ACTUAL → 2027 PROJECTED
Solid segment (2021–2023) = IRS actuals. Dashed segment (2024–2027) = linear extrapolation of the FY21→FY23 rate of change.
ANALYST READ
Sun Belt momentum is decelerating, not reversing. Texas and Florida's net inflows roughly halved between FY21 and FY23 (COVID-era surge normalizing) — the straight-line trend shows Arizona's household gains approaching zero by 2026 if the current deceleration rate holds.
High-tax outbound states are losing residents at a slowing rate. California's net loss narrowed from −158K to −100K households; New York's from −142K to −72K. Extrapolated forward, both trend toward breakeven by 2026–27 — a trend line, not a prediction of reversal.
New entrants to the gainer tier: South Carolina (+29K), Georgia (+15K), and Colorado (+11K) don't yet have a prior-year IRS data point in this release cycle and are shown as latest-year-only in the bar chart.
Wealth-selectivity matters more than headcount. Per Tax Foundation's analysis of the same release, Florida gained ~$184.8K in AGI per net new resident; Massachusetts lost ~$141.7K in AGI per departing resident — the income shift outpaces the population shift.